Portugal and Venezuela: continuity in times of change?
Paulo Gorjão
A future government of PSD/CDS-PP, in substance, is likely to maintain the approach taken by the previous government of the Socialist Party, in part because it will continue the focus of the previous government on economic diplomacy, as well as its strategy to guarantee new energy suppliers. Under normal circumstances, the goal of deepening the relationship with Venezuela will continue with the new government, perhaps with some nuances of a political nature.
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Obama's visit to Brazil: patching old wounds and pointing the way ahead
Pedro Seabra
On the eve of US President Barack Obama's visit to Brazil, the state of relations between the two countries understandably comes under renewed focus, with many policymakers and observers keen on testing the waters between the two often-strayed partners. As expected, the stakes are naturally high since this will mark Obama's first official visit to South America. The selection of Brazil as the initial stopover is therefore not without its underlined geopolitical significance. More so, if one takes into account the new tenant of the Palácio do Planalto, Dilma Rousseff, and her latest indications that slight foreign policy 'nuances' are to be expected in the coming future, including when it comes to dealing with the US in the present international context.
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By Paulo Gorjão
Stewart Patrick's article about Brazil's diplomatic efforts vis-à-vis Iran and the implications regarding Brasília's chances for a permanent UN Security Council seat should be read carefully. His main argument is that Brazil's "unpredictable behavior" and "anti-Americanism" might have diminished Brasília's support in the US. And he warns -- a sort of threat -- that "Washington must be confident that any new permanent members will behave as responsible stakeholders". In others words, as it was pointed out by Marcelo Valença (see pp. 2-3), it seems that choices will have to be made, sooner or later.
In other words, choices will have to be made by Brazil, but the US can continue avoiding any commitment regarding a timetable towards the UN reform. Some players must choose a specific diplomatic path, while others are exempt of doing so. Thucydides comes to mind: "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must".
Of course, Brazil must conquer US support in order to guarantee a seat in the Security Council. However, US support must not be used as a blackmail device in order to impose diplomatic obedience at all cost.
Moreover, like Mark Twain, "the news of my death has been greatly exaggerated". Stewart Patrick, as well as others, does not need to worry. Brazil's stance towards Iran did no harm as far as its chances for a UN Security Council seat are concerned.
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