IPRIS

By Pedro Seabra

With Hugo Chávez’s rants on a roll, a border on high-alert and regional endeavours to bring all parties to the table, it was only a matter of time until Colombia’s own long-time guerrillas FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) had a word to say in all of this. They have done so, with a curious video message from top leader Alfonso Cano, apparently opening up the door to a political and peaceful way-out of the local enduring conflict – while at the same time, recurring to the usual string of accusations regarding Uribe’s government.

As in any conflict, time is of the essence, and in this case, FARC could not have chosen a better opportunity to make its move. Indeed, it comes at a time when Chávez is trying to amass regional support for comprehensive talks with the insurgents, while at the same time deflecting Colombian accusations of hosting its presence in Venezuelan territory.

Since Álvaro Uribe took office, his “democratic security policy” – with the unavoidable help of the $4.7 billion U.S. backed Plan Colombia – led to a robust surge that has essentially increased the presence of the security forces throughout the country and drove back the FARC to the Colombian jungle. Although still a credible threat, FARC’s grip is currently far form what it used to be.

Calls for a constructive engagement by newly elected-President Juan Manuel Santos will likely increase in the coming weeks, as hopes for a definitive ending to this internal strife – of significant importance to the surrounding region – will inevitably grow. But he would be wise to remain sceptic as such apparent openness only arose after military cornering and politically discrediting the narco-terrorist group. Indeed, FARC’s options are currently limited and taking advantage of the recent Chávez-Uribe rife allows for the perfect opportunity to politically present itself as a worthy negotiating actor. However, FARC’s track record has already proved such dilatory tactics wrong in numerous occasions and this time is not likely to be any different.

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By Pedro Seabra

Venezuela has cut ties with Colombia ... again. The reason? Colombia finally presented to the OEA evidence that allegedly showed 1,500 FARC elements, hiding in the Venezuelan jungle, under the harmless auspices of the Chávez government. Significant as it may be, this apparently extreme political measure – usually a sign of an impeding deeper crisis – has long lost its desired effect, especially in this particular region.

Indeed, from Colombian incursions on Ecuadorian soil to U.S. military bases agreements, inflamed call to arms and personal animosities, both countries have pretty much exhausted the “crisis rhetoric textbook” to its last breath, during the past two years. Elevated tensions have therefore always been a constant in the bilateral daily life.

As Michael Shifter points out, “this is vintage Chávez, and vintage Uribe, playing out their last act together”. No one really believes this latest episode could result in an open conflict. Although Chávez could definitely use the boost in social support, both countries now understand that they have much to lose if they choose to go down that road. The $7 billion slashed trade that resulted from the previous “severe crisis” will surely be taken into consideration.

Ultimately, this latest spat will fall on Uribe’s successor, Juan Manuel Santos – who will only take office on August 7 – to resolve. However, hopes that he will take on a more conciliatory tone towards its frequently-enraged neighbour are bound to be dashed by a good dose of realism. Chávez’s grip is fuelled by crises and unfortunately, Colombia is just over the border.

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